FINALLY got the damn thesis in!
It's a real weight off my mind... w00t. 23,300 words, 96 pages, one major pain in the arse.
In case anyone gives the remotest of flying fucks... here's the abstract.
Seismic hazard assessment depends to a large extent on knowledge of earthquake recurrence statistics. In south-east Queensland, as throughout Australia, the accurate determination of these statistics is hampered by a lack of accurate seismic data. This is due to a combination of low seismicity rates and sparse historical records due to poor spatial and temporal seismographic coverage.
Modern high-performance computing offers a method for augmenting historical seismic data by the running of computer simulations of the south-east Queensland fault network. An accurate computer model of the region may simulate the equivalent of thousands of years of real seismic activity in a very short period of computation time.
A large amount of background information is required to construct a physically realistic fault network simulation. This thesis provides a wide-ranging geological and geophysical framework for the future simulation and analysis of the south-east Queensland fault network.
The geological background of south-east Queensland is explored, including tectonic setting and history, local geology, faulting and recent seismic history. An updated (July 2005) Gutenberg-Richter relationship is calculated for the region. This allows an estimation of the annual probability of an earthquake above magnitude 6, 5 or 4 in the project area to be calculated as 0.3%, 1% and 4% respectively. These historical seismic statistics may prove useful as a comparison for results generated by simulation.
Techniques of earthquake forecasting that may be utilised with simulation results are explored in depth, including Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) and Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS). These techniques may be valuable in assessing areas of increased seismic hazard from simulation results.
Finally, a method is developed for converting raw GIS fault data into a format suitable for computer simulation, including the generation of computational meshes for Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations.
The information presented is intended to optimise the accuracy of subsequent simulations of the south-east Queensland fault network. In turn, a more accurate simulation will lead to a better understanding of the seismic hazard in south-east Queensland.
I've had so little sleep the last two nights trying to get the intro and conclusion finished that I've been living off Red Eye and V. Absolutely exhausted now. I'm gonna sleep well tonight. :)
December 15 2005, 12:56:32 UTC 6 years ago
December 15 2005, 13:29:46 UTC 6 years ago
December 15 2005, 13:34:23 UTC 6 years ago
Its amazing how much progress has been made in this field. I wonder when mass evacuations will become a standard, if irregular, occurence (obviously not here but elsewhere).
December 15 2005, 13:46:15 UTC 6 years ago
thanks... :)
Yeah... the Chinese have had some success with it. In 1975 they evacuated a couple of hundred thousand people after a prediction made from observed groundwater fluctuations, and a few days later the city was flattened.Then a few months later, another city was flattened without warning, and 200,000 odd people died... it's a very capricious business.
I'd be happy if I could just predict one Australian earthquake like Newcastle... I think it was you I mentioned it to on the maths community? Retroactively, all the signs are there... could have been predicted. Then again, sometimes all the signs are there and it doesn't happen. Sometimes it does happen, with no sign at all.
Because of that, it will be a while before the mass evacuations become standard. In the 70s there was great optimism that earthquakes would soon be predictable and everything would be good. Then a sort of post-modernist pessimism set in when the Earth just wouldn't cooperate...
December 15 2005, 16:40:43 UTC 6 years ago
nice summary
Sounds like you did two or three theses. and that second quake killed closer to a million than 200,000 people.December 16 2005, 01:10:41 UTC 6 years ago
Re: nice summary
Yeah it did sort of turn out like that. It was supposed to be a simulation project but that didn't pan out so I had to focus more on the geological background and the real seismic statistics.Put in my reference to Vidale et al. too. :)
December 15 2005, 15:19:24 UTC 6 years ago
December 15 2005, 17:02:31 UTC 6 years ago
December 15 2005, 22:02:07 UTC 6 years ago
December 16 2005, 03:21:50 UTC 6 years ago
You rock, dollface. You rock!!!